Blooming storms over a gloomy landscape

The year 2009 started with a gloomy economy outlook. When will the economy hits bottom is the main concern of the people. Over our political landscape a storm is blooming, threatening to tear apart what have been taken decades to build. The zeal of BN in seeking total domination of our politic after the electoral debacle of last election, with executive domination over the legislative and judiciary branches of Malaysia government is a serious setback to our democracy. Continuing political impasses over the unconstitutional political coup against the legitimate Perak state government, not only did it paralyze the Perak state, it also diverts our attention from the serious issues that face this nation.

Last Tuesday (March 3, 2009) saw Kuala Lumpur suffered from flash flood havoc within 2 hour of heavy rain.

The Kula Lumpur Flood Mitigation Project Package B, which suppose to be completed but delayed indefinitely due to reasons only known to the DID. The KLFM Package B project comprised two important components, the first of which was the upgrading of the present Gombak diversion scheme to channel more flood flows from Sungai Gombak to Batu pond.
This would involve the construction of a barrage, diversion channel to divert additional flood flow, excavation and enlargement of Batu pond to increase its storage capacity to 4.5 million cu m, and construction of other associated works such as additional inlets, trash screens, outlet gates, ogee weirs and floodwalls.

It includes the development of a new Keroh diversion scheme to channel flood flow from Sungai Keroh
to Jinjang ponds.The project was aimed at diverting storm water from entering the city centre by creating two holding basins, namely the Batu and Jinjangretention ponds, linked by the two diversion channels, namely the Keroh and Gombak channels, and releasing it well after the storm event.The KLFM project was expected to be completed by the end of May 2007.

This project applies the flood flow detention concept by diverting Sungai Gombak and Sungai Keroh flood
discharges to the Batu/Jinjang detention ponds before released gradually into the river system downstream. This concept is totally against the spirit of Manual Saliran Mesra Alam (MSMA) which advocates the need to control storm water runoffs at the source.The widening and deepening of our rivers and drainage systems will only accelerate the rapid discharges of flood water making flash flood an inevitable nightmare; a fact that has been acknowledged in the MSMA by flood mitigation experts.

Since the gazette of MSMA by the government in Jan 2001, the DID has selectively enforced the law by blaming REHDA for it’s reluctant to comply with the law.But the Kuala Lumpur Flood Mitigation project has nothing to do with REHDA, why none of the recommendations listed in the MSMA is being considered by the authority when the flood mitigation project is being planed will remain as a mystery as long as BN is in power.

The primary flood mitigation solution of the DID is river dredging. River dredging require the river to be straightened to get rid of narrow parts of the rivers and sharp bends in order to avoid erosion due to
rapid discharge of water. To straighten a river, more lands must be acquired when lands acquisition fail to meet the goal, the alternative is to build concretized river. The construction of concretized river may lead to an unexpected problem that increased the need to reinforce and heighten the river dikes and levies in the hinterland. Over the years accumulation of sediment in the rivers resulting in shallower river channels is an unavoidable event and this led to the need for higher dikes. When river dikes have been reinforced with
concrete walls, it changed the character of the river delta landscape. Without realizing how the changed landscape might affect the flood mitigation in the long run, the government foolishly committed billions of ringgit for a solution that will only last for a few years with serious side effects in the long run.

Why river dredging is not a cost efficient and long term solution? The following is an excerpt describing the problem faces by the Dutch for centuries when river dredging in the only alternative to flood mitigation.

Every year that the river flooded new material was deposited between the dikes and as a result the riverbed was slowly but steadily lifted above the floodplain and the water storing capacity between the dikes was being reduced. In response the
dikes were increased in height but by doing so the hydrostatic pressure of floods also increased because the water could rise higher between the dikes. This led over time to an increasing number of dike breaches and catastrophic floods. An additional problem was that dikes were not everywhere reinforced and increased in height at the same time. This led to a situation that if a town or landowner at one side of the river increased the height of the dike, people on the other side of the river had to do the same or risk water flowing over their dike in case of a flood.

An additional problem of the construction of river dikes was the formation of sandbanks in the river, obstructing the flow of water. During floods the river channel could not carry all the water and as a result the dikes overflowed inundating the lower laying area behind the dike.

If the mighty Dutch that successfully conquered more and more lands from the sea do not believe in river dredging as the ultimate way for flash flood mitigation, do you still believe that the Kuala Lumpur Flood Mitigation Project Package B will work?

 How many billions should we waste before we realized that the flood mitigation projects ultimately fail to address the flash floods problem and create more problems for us after we messed up with nature?

RM21 billion needed for M'sia's flood mitigation projects

Sun, Dec 09, 2007
The New Straits Times

GEORGE TOWN: The Drainage and Irrigation Department needs RM21 billion for flood mitigation projects nationwide to put a stop to the perennial problem of flooding.

A recent survey by the department showed that once all the flood mitigation projects have been put in place, the country is expected to be free from floods in future.

DID director-general Datuk Keizrul Abdullah, however, said that all these (the implementation of the flood mitigation projects) would take some time. "RM21 billion is an extremely huge figure... the government has many other responsibilities. As such, we have to implement the flood mitigation projects in phases and according to our priority list," he told reporters after the launching of the Batu Ferringhi beach rehabilitation project at the beach front of the Bayview Beach Resort here today.

He cited, for example, the SMART (Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel) in Kuala Lumpur, saying that it had managed to avert two floods following its opening in the middle of this year.

The uniqueness of the SMART motorway comes from its Automated Flood Control Gates on either end of the motorway tunnel which converts the system into a flood tunnel to divert flood water from its holding basin and storage reservoir into the Sungai Kerayong and back into Sungai Klang.

Keizrul said they were currently focusing on widening and deepening some of Johor's rivers.

Financially BN government has plundered Malaysia for hundreds of billions. Another few billions of wastage do not seem to bother Malaysians very much. But for Pakatan Rakyat state governments especially Penang state government to join the chorus of singing praise to the river dredging centered flood mitigation projects is a real eyes opener. 

Wednesday October 22, 2008

RM970mil needed for flood control

 THE state government has asked Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to consider allocating RM970mil in funding to ensure flood mitigation projects in Penang can be executed.

Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said RM670mil from the allocation would be used for seven flood mitigation projects in the state.

The projects are the Phase Two Sungai Junjung flood mitigation project (RM125mil), Phase Two Sungai Pinang project (RM125mil); Sungai Juru, Bukit Mertajam catchment area, Permatang Rawa, Sungai Ara and Sungai Rambai project (RM300mil); Bayan Baru Cyber City project (RM30mil); Bukit Panchor, Byram, Transkrian and Jawi project (RM30mil); Bukit Tambun/Tanjung Ketupat project (RM20mil) and Valdor project (RM20mil).

Lim said the projects would involve the upgrading, widening and deepening of the rivers; the building of bunds and retention ponds to prevent the rivers from overflowing; the building of pump houses to channel flood water out of flooded areas; and the construction and upgrading of drainage systems where drains were directly connected to rivers or the sea.

“RM300mil out of the RM970mil would also be used to build 50 water pumps, five retention ponds and bunds to treat water outside the seven flood mitigation project areas,” he said in a press statement yesterday.

Lim expressed the hope that the funding would be given to the state under the Ninth Malaysia Plan and continued in the Tenth Malaysia Plan.

Apart from the RM970mil, Lim had in a letter sent on Sept 10 also asked Abdullah to speed up the execution of the RM327mil allocation for flood mitigation projects in Bertam, Sungai Prai, Sungai Pinang (Phase One), Sungai Junjung (Phase One) and other flood prevention projects approved under the Ninth Malaysia Plan.

Why Penang state government should not endorses river dredging?  For instance take Sungai Pinang as an example, dredging doest not help tidal bodies of water in mitigating flooding which is why it wouldn’t work on Sungai Pinang. Why deepening Sungai Pinang for 18m depth, when mud flats at the river delta are a sight to see during low tide?  Can someone please explain how the waters are supposed to flow into the sea when the riverbed is deeper than the river delta? So the alternative is to dredge the river delta as well, but how far and how wide should the dredging be done, at what cost.

Penang state government remain indecision over the flood mitigation projects; that only means the state government will stick to the original plan which is costly and ineffective.

Why Penang state government behaves in this manner? Afraid to be seem as anti-development? Worry of being deprived of federal funding? Or the state government just has no solution at all.

It is obvious that the barriers to proper decision making stem from the lack of political will and capacity constraint in the state government. Flash flood problems in Penang do not required billions of ringgits to solve. Proven low impact development (LID) solution that is highly popular in western countries is totally ignored, which might cost the state government less than RM100 millions to implement.

 The inability to solve the flash floods problem unfortunately leads to another problem which seems to be unrelated to flash floods; vector borne infectious diseases.

 The stagnant water in our flash floods friendly drainage system is a perfect breeding ground for mosquitoes. The frequent outdoor fogging conducted in Penang; only drive the mosquitoes into the buildings.  No surprise if your find sudden appearance of mosquitoes in your workplace or home. With no solution for flash floods in sight, the vector borne infectious diseases will be rampant when there is no rain.

 The Penang state government is expected to face an onslaught of heavy rainfalls in the coming few months. How it going to deal with flash floods problem when it choose to embrace a proven ineffective flood mitigation solution?

 According to ancient meteorology of Huang Di Nei Jing or Yellow Emperor Inner Classic, we will face the onslaught of above average rainfalls begin from March to end of September. 

Season	Date	Weather	Prediction
Wind Season 大寒到春分	20 Jan to 20March	Warm 少阴君火	Windy weather that turns abnormally hot as Mars moves through Ox  and Girl asterms from Feb to March.   Rainfalls after extreme hot weather that marked by heat stroke.
Warm Season 春分到小满	21 March to 20 May	Humid 太阴湿土	This is the period of continuous rainfalls. Remember the floods that occurred in Sarawak and Australia, it will be here.
Hot Season 小满到大暑	21 May to 22 July	Hot 少阳相火	Mars is expected to move through Wall and Legs asterims from May to June. Weather will turn abnormally hot, marked by more heat stokes and by elections. This is the months if you pray harder more politicians will die of heart attack, more by elections. You can call year 2009 the year of by elections. After extreme hot weather, rainfalls will follow. Mars and Venus were in striking conjunction on the morning of June 19, just two degrees apart, or the equivalent of four full-moon disks. Mercury which use to get lost in the glare of the dawn, will be easily spotted. This event signalling the coming of heavy rainfall. As Venus move eastward at a great speed from Mars, rainfall will gradually become heavy and heavier. (Lastest Update)
Humid Season 大暑到秋分	23 July to23 Sept	Dry 阳明燥金	This is another period of heavy rainfalls. Flooding will last until end of September.  If this happened in the place called Wenchuan, the dams damaged by 2008 earthquake might collapse with cascading effect due to overwhelming volume of water. You better pray that my prediction will not come true, as this will be one of the worst human catastrophes. The Earthquake in Yunnan on July 10, the flooding on South China on July 4 and the report of heavier than usual rainfall in coming weeks confirmed my fear of the worst human catastrophes in the making. More rains are expected in Sichuan, Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces and Chongqing Municipality, according to weather forecast. The torrential downpour, which continued for three days, flooded the banks of Rongjiang River, forcing 47,000 people of Rongshui County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of south China to leave their houses.  Another 7,509 people living below Guangxi region's Kama reservoir were evacuated for fear that the dam might collapse as water flow had destroyed a section of a dyke near the base of the reservoir.   Several houses in the rural areas were also destroyed in the flood, while farmlands were inundated and crops damaged.   It has been estimated that rains have caused about $21 billion in damages.   Earlier Xinhua had reported that 20 people had died and eight were missing in the flood.   With water levels of some rivers in Gaungxi touching the highest since 1998, China experienced worst flooding in over 100 years. What the China government did not tell the world is that China has to release dam water at upstream areas at faster rate to prevent the collapse of dams, which might have cascading effect to the dams at lower stream areas. The flooding at Guangxi will continue to get worst, either the dams at WenChuan areas collapse or  Guangxi will go under the water, the choice has to be made.  In summer and early autumn much of the heavy rain is brought by typhoons, or tropical cyclones, that move north from the South China Sea or the region east of the Philippines. A double rainfall maximum is to be expected; one in early summer, the so-called Bai-U or plum rains, and a second in late summer or early autumn, brought by typhoons. If heavy rainfall continued in the first week of August, on August 5, the danger of serious flooding will be made worse by the pull from the moon. This day is of significant because on the night of August 6, you can see the Moon is close to Jupiter, the two celestial wanderer are about 2.3 degrees away from each other.  How Jupiter affect the pull from the moon will decide how badly the flooding will be. (Lastest Update) Lim Guan Eng better be prepared for the worst landslide to occur in Penang. If my prediction comes true, he probably will be under tremendous pressure to resign as Chief Minister of Penang for his stand on hill slope development.
Dry Season 秋分到小雪	24 Sept to 21 Nov	Cold 太阳寒水
Cold Season 小雪到大寒	22 Nov to 19 Jan	Windy 厥阴风木

Table 1: Weather patterns of the year 2009 (戊寅)

Aim point RA: 21h 17m 16s Dec: −18°16'59" Sun 2009 Feb 15 15:26 UTC

Figure 1: Mars was in the ox asterim on Feb 15, clashed with Mercury in the Capricorn constellation, signaling bad weather that is abnormally hot and follows by heavy rainfalls

Aim point RA: 1h 50m 41s Dec: +12°47'38" Fri 2009 Jun 5 15:38 UTC

Figure 2: Mars will be in Legs asterim on June 5, signaling abnormally hot weather.

If the ancient wisdom is real, that means we will have 6 months of frequent rainfalls. The potential of flash floods, mudslides or landslides to occur become real. Without knowing how to tackle storm water runoff, the Penang state government will be at the mercy of nature. Lim Guan Eng makes a real big mistake with his stand on hill slope development.  As a responsible state government, even if my prediction is wrong, the state government should deploy special taskforce aim at stabilizing hill slope to prevent the occurring of landslides especially during rainy season. The question now is does this state government know what to do?

Groundwater contributes to landslides in several ways.  When saturated, a potential landslide block has more weight because of the water, which results in a larger driving force.  Groundwater moving through the soil exerts seepage forces that further reduce stability.  Finally, the presence of groundwater reduces the strength of the soil on a potential slide plane.  When seepage is impeded at the surface, groundwater levels can build to cause an unstable condition.

Surface storm water runoff can reduce slope stability by infiltrating into the near-surface soils at critical locations, and by causing erosion.  Where groundwater emerges at the surface, resulting in a spring or seep, the runoff can cause surface erosion that can undermine and/or over-steepen a slope.  Undermining and/or over-steepening and the consequent loss of support at the toe of the slope can trigger a landslide.

 In general, the methods for achieving suitable stability for a site or project include: improving stability by reducing the forces that cause movement, increasing the forces that resist movement, or a combination of the two.  These methods for improvement measures fall into several generalized categories, as presented in the following table.

APPROACH	PROCEDURE	EXAMPLES
Reduce the driving forces	Remove weight from the upper, driving portion of the landslide	Flatten slope, remove material from the landslide top, move external loads away from the landslide top
	Remove the unstable material	Completely or partially remove unstable materials
	Drain groundwater to reduce the driving weight, seepage forces and erosion	Trench sub-drains, springhead drains, finger drains, drainage blankets, drainage wells (horizontal, vertical and directionally drilled), drainage tunnels.
	Build fills or replace existing soil with lightweight fills to reduce driving weight	Expanded polystyrene, sawdust, cinders, bottom ash.
Increase the resisting forces Apply external forces	Add weight to the resisting part of the landslide	Buttress, counterweights, toe berms
Increase the soil strength	Build structural retention systems to resist part of the driving forces	In situ walls (soldier pile, secant pile, tangent pile, etc.) and gravity walls (i.e., concrete cantilever, reinforced soil, gabion, crib, etc.)
	Install anchors that  transfer driving forces into stable ground	Tieback anchors
	Drain the subsurface to increase the soil strength along the failure surface	Trench sub-drains, springhead drains, finger drains, drainage blankets, drainage wells (horizontal, vertical and directionally drilled), drainage tunnels.
	Install in situ reinforcement to increase the strength along the failure surface	Soil nails, anchors, piles, shafts
	Replace or modify the landslide soil to increase its strength	Excavation and replacement with high shear strength soil, improve soil by compaction or lime and cement stabilization, grouting.
	Construct reinforced backfill that is stable on steeper slopes and has higher strength	Reinforced soil slopes and walls

The special taskforce should be directed to identify project sites that have potential landslide problem. The MSMA contains all the solutions and recommendations on storm water runoff management. That is the
only bible left for Lim Guan Eng to rely on. Time is run out fast; the rainy season already starts!

You may laugh at my warning; let me make another scary revelation. On Sept 25, 2008 Venus clashed with Mars, this event coincided with the dry weather of autumn in China explaining why drought occurred until end of February this year.

Figure 3: Venus clashed with Mars on Sept 25, 2008(丁丑). This event coincided with the dry weather of autumn in China explaining why drought occurs.

Season	Date	Weather	Remark
Windy 大寒到春分	20 Jan to 20 March	Windy 厥阴风木	Windy winter with heavy precipitation in wintry nature. The 2008 Chinese winter storms are a series of winter storm events that affected large portions of southern and central China starting on 25 January 2008 until 6 February 2008 .  Windy spring.
Warm春分到小满	21 March to 20 May	Warm 少阴君火	Warm spring
Hot 小满到大暑	21 May to 22 July	Humid 太阴湿土	Wet and very hot mid summer.
Humid 大暑到秋分	23 July to 23 Sept	Hot 少阳相火	Hot late summer. Hot early autumn.
Dry 秋分到小雪	24 Sept to 21 Nov	Dry 阳明燥金	The weather becomes unusually dry on the influence of Venus, signaling the dawn of drought. If the China authority realized this is happening, just wonder whether they still want to stop rainfall during the Olympic Games. On the influence of Mars, late autumn becomes extreme hot.
Cold 小雪到大寒	22 Nov to 19 Jan	Cold 太阳寒水	The early winter becomes mild and dry; no rain or snows,  due to warmer weather causing clouds to move upwards.

The accuracy of ancient meteorology from last year until now means that the worst human catastrophic risk is blooming in China. The dams damaged by the 2008 earthquake in Wenchuan might collapse with cascading
effect under overwhelming volume of water if the rainfalls continue for 6 months. This will be the worst human catastrophe with millions of casualty; the ultimate lesson for human being in the foolish quest to conquer nature.

I wish I am wrong, totally wrong!

Without realizing there is an imminent nature disaster waiting to happen, our politicians especially those from BN still try desperately to defend the unconstitutional power grab in Perak through unconstitutional means. Face with the prospect of gloomy economy outlook, imminent nature disasters, high unemployment rates, high crime rates and host of other problems, BN’s reputation is gone for good. The next election will see the total defeat of BN.

 The ancient astronomy and meteorology is not a mythology, it is considered as a military science which is used by our ancestors in battles and wars. Our ancestors use weather as a secret weapon to defeat their enemies. None of our ancestors look at the sky for divine intervention, auspicious or bad omen. In ancient time, natural disasters are usually a harbinger of a change in the “mandate of heaven”, which is just the excuse used to conquer unpopular nations.

 May be the recent events in the sky is a bad omen for BN which will see its demise in the next general election. All Anwar need to do is just waiting patiently.